分析师观点：默克买贵了，至少多花20亿美元

　　默克宣布84亿美元的价格收购Cubist，加上要承担的债务，总共需要花费95亿美元，有分析师认为现在看来这个价格至少高了20亿美元。

　　因为默克刚宣布要购买Cubist，法院就做出了一项对并购非常不利的判决：Cubist最畅销的药物“克必信”的两项关键专利被宣布失效，导致竞争者2016年就可以开始仿制克必信了，这比市场预期的时间早了大约2年，所以分析师认为默克可能为此多付出了20~30亿美元。

　　分析师认为，默克有可能会继续这笔交易，但收购价可能要低得多。这笔交易太出乎意料了，大多数分析师认为，Cubist会打赢这场官司。

　　在周一的晨间电话会议上，默克首席执行官Kenneth Frazier 指出法院目前并没有对此做出任何表示。Leerink Swann 分析师Seamus Fernandez表示，由于这项决定此收购价高出了20-30亿美元。

　　瑞银的Marc Goodman估计，缺少默克的报价，Cubist的骨架可能会下跌20%。

　　在此消息后，周二收盘时默克和Cubist股价分别下跌3%和4.5%。

Merck’s $8.4 Billion Deal for Cubist Looks $2 Billion Too Expensive Now

　　The 37% premium Merck & Co. paid in its $8.4 billion deal for Cubist PharmaceuticalsInc. Monday morning was already rich. But by that evening, the price tag looked to be at least $2 billion too high.

　　A court ruling after the market close Monday dealt a blow to the value of Cubist’s key blockbuster drug Cubicin.

　　A judge ruled that two key patents on Cubist’s top-selling drug are invalid, opening up the door to competition from generic pharma companies by 2016, years earlier than expected.

　　Analysts think Merck probably would have done the deal anyway, but the price tag would have been much lower. This deal was widely unexpected as most analysts expected that Cubist would win the case. On a conference call Monday moring, Merck’s Chief Executive Kenneth Frazier said the court had not given any indication of when the case would be decided.

　　Based on the decision, Leerink Swann analyst Seamus Fernandez said the price was between $2 billion to $3 billion too high. Credit Suisse analyst Vamil Divan said the deal is now “likely value destructive.”

　　Merck’s stock dropped 3% on this news Tuesday, and Cubist’s fell 4.5%. UBS’s Marc Goodman estimates that Cubist’s shares would have tumbled 20% absent Merck’s offer.

　　Analysts also said this court ruling makes it very unlikely that another buyer could come to the table to bid for Cubist.

　　Based on how the merger agreement was written, Merck can’t walk away because of the ruling. It was carved out of what’s considered a “material adverse effect” post-announcement. The companies said they still expect the deal to close in the first quarter of 2015.